SAF Industry at a Glance
July 23, 2025
The key SAF market developments in July 2025 include:
Increasing optimism over potential trade deals and global markets’ ability to withstand the rollercoaster of US tariff policy changes, coupled with market skepticism over US - Russia ultimatums have led to calmer energy markets this month, with crude oil prices falling around 5% over the last 30 days.
Airline passenger demand is improving again globally, which also contributed to an increase in average jet fuel prices for the calendar month of June.
The HR 1 Bill (OBBB) was signed into law July 4, 2025 after numerous adjustments. Included were the finalized regulations on the Clean Fuel Production Credit 45Z which has now replaced the Blenders Tax Credit. The key changes included the re-introduction of restrictions on allowable feedstocks for US renewable fuels which preclude the use of imported feedstocks except from Canada and Mexico, and the reduction of the maximum SAF credit from $1.75 per gallon to $1.00 per gallon. These changes deal a significant blow to the prospects for the US SAF industry.
US SAF feedstock imports recovered in May, especially Used Cooking Oil, although the new regulations are likely to negatively impact import volumes in the coming months. We expect material previously destined for the US to be increasingly diverted towards Europe. We believe that this will increase feedstock prices for US SAF producers, which coupled with a benign jet fuel forecast will put more pressure on SAF margins.
On July 22, the UK government announced the winning companies who will share the next round of £63 million funding from its Advanced Fuel Fund which aims to promote the development of first-of-a-kind commercial and demonstration-scale projects in the UK.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., Mitsubishi Corporation, and ENEOS Corporation have formed Hawaii Renewables, LLC, a joint venture to produce up to 36.6 million gallons of SAF, plus RD, renewable naphtha, and low-carbon liquefied petroleum gases at Par Pacific’s Kapolei refinery in Hawaii. Green Star BCS’ Consulting Division is proud to have acted as Techno-Economic advisor to Mitsubishi on the deal.
United Airlines reported its Q2 2025 earnings on July 16, 2025, with revenue at $15.2 billion, up 1.7% year-over-year and adjusted EPS at $3.87, beating estimates of $3.84. There was no mention of United’s sustainability targets, decarbonization efforts or SAF usage during the earnings call, indicating a reduced focus in this area during its increased focus on financial performance and resilience.
Neste has signed an agreement with DHL Express to sell 7,400 metric tons of SAF for its operations at Singapore Changi Airport, marking one of the largest SAF deals in Asia’s air cargo sector.
South Korea has delayed its planned SAF mandate by two years to 2027, citing insufficient domestic production capacity, according to local media reports.
Project SkyPower coordinated a joint letter from over 40 companies across the SAF value chain, calling on EU governments to provide more support to eSAF development, noting that no European eSAF projects had reached FID despite the increasing requirements under the ReFuelEU Mandate.