SAF Industry at a Glance

October 22, 2025

The key SAF market developments in October 2025 include:

• Crude oil pricing continues its downward trend, hitting 5-month lows due to geopolitical tensions, declining demand, and oversupply. Longer-term forecasts are increasingly pessimistic on prices.

• Airline passenger demand continues to improve globally, which also contributed to an increase in average jet fuel prices for the calendar month of September, despite weakening oil prices.

• US SAF prices are steady following the turmoil of US incentive structure seen for the first half of the year. It is expected that producers will demand higher premiums beginning in 2026, sure to the reduction in incentives. These changes deal a significant blow to the prospects for the US SAF industry.

• US SAF feedstock imports continue to be volatile due to changes in low-carbon fuels production incentives. We expect material previously destined for the US to be increasingly diverted towards Europe. We believe that this will increase feedstock prices for US SAF producers, which, coupled with a benign jet fuel forecast, will put more pressure on SAF margins.

• The US Department of Energy announced $7.56 billion dollars in terminated funding for various energy-related projects, a majority of which were rushed through by the previous administration, due to non-viable financing and lack of advancement of the nation’s energy needs.

• HondaJet successfully conducted a test flight with its HF120 engines consuming 100% SAF. This marks an important step toward commercial airlines using 100% SAF as fuel.

• XCF Global, Inc. expects to resume SAF production at its site near Reno, Nevada, beginning the first quarter of 2026, adding to the very limited US SAF production.