SAF Industry at a Glance
November 21, 2025
The key SAF market developments in November 2025 include:
Crude oil pricing saw an upward trend versus previous months benefiting from reactions to sanctions on Russian exported energy. Crude prices are down since the beginning of the year due to an oversupply in the market and softening demand. Longer term forecasts are increasingly pessimistic on prices, with most still expecting crude oil to average in the low $50/barrel in 2026.
Airline passenger demand continues to improve globally, which also contributed to an increase in average jet fuel prices for the calendar month, despite weakening average oil prices.
US SAF prices are steady following the turmoil of US incentive structure seen for the first half of the year. It is expected that producers will begin to demand higher premiums beginning 2026 sure to the reduction in incentives. These changes deal a significant blow to the prospects for the US SAF industry.
The US federal government ended the longest shutdown in US history. US SAF feedstock imports are unreported for the second month in a row. We expect material previously destined for the US to be increasingly diverted towards Europe. We believe that this will increase feedstock prices for US SAF producers, which coupled with a benign jet fuel forecast will put more pressure on SAF margins.
Neste and United Airlines are expanding their SAF partnership with United Airlines offering SAF for commercial use at George Bush Intercontinental Airport, Newark Liberty International Airport, and Dulles International Airport.
Phillips 66 and DHL Express have signed a three-year agreement for SAF delivery to DHL’s West Coast operations. The SAF is planned to be produced at Phillips 66’s Rodeo refinery.
Gevo, Inc reported a Q3 operating loss with a positive adjusted EBITDA. Q3 financial results highlighted a multi-year offtake agreement to generate Carbon Dioxide Removal credits and the sale of all remaining 2025 Clean Fuel Production Credits.
Phillips 66 reported modest Q3 financial results with positives in their renewables segment. Even with suffering margins in general on renewable fuels, Phillips 66 continues to cut operating costs which are improving their margins. They are committed to moving renewable barrels to Europe.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. reported negative but improved operating margins for Q3, caused directly by improved utilization of their renewable assets.
Valero Energy Corp. reported a Q3 operating loss for their renewable diesel segment faced with policy and feedstock uncertainties
Neste reported increased margins on renewable products compared to the previous year with increased sale volumes of both RD and SAF. Neste reported a significant increase in utilization at their Martinez facility but was challenged by the US renewables market. They are shifting more renewable product to Europe, attributed to healthier RD prices.