SAF Industry at a Glance
Americas | May 2026
The key SAF market developments in May 2026 include:
Crude oil pricing continues to be high and unstable as the conflict in the Middle East continues with no clear path to de-escalation. While prices are relatively high, considering their levels at the end of 2025, pricing has not experienced the level that analysts were predicting towards the beginning of the conflict.
Jet pricing increased for the month of April, but at a more reasonable level compared to the previous month. HEFA feedstocks continued to rise as well. As a result, SAF margins decreased slightly across the board. HEFA margins are estimated to be $1.70 on neat SAF which is slightly elevated from last year. Ethanol has slowly increased this year compared to other commodities leaving EtJ margins close to $1.60/gal. This comes after a year of margins close to breakeven.
US SAF premiums are holding steady following the incentive reductions in 2026. Producers and purchasers are still waiting to see how incentives updates affect the market in the US, plus the conflict in the Middle East has put strain on all petroleum products, including jet fuel. This adds to the uncertainty of SAF pricing as contract and spot pricing is typically linked to jet fuel prices.
Gevo Inc. reported a positive adjusted EBITDA, improving from a negative adjusted EBITDA a year ago. They announced a private capital raise to fund their ATJ-30 facility, which would be the largest ATJ project.
Phillips 66 reported down earnings versus Q4 2025, impacted by mark-to-market losses related to short derivative positions used as economic hedges to manage price risk on certain physical positions. Phillips 66 commented that RINs prices are more than twice what it was in 2025, adding that it was a significant uplift in renewable fuels margins.
Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s renewable diesel segment provided improved results from a year prior which are reflective of a stronger margin environment and clarity on 45Z regulation.
Valero Energy Corp reported a net income compared to a net loss in Q1 2025. The Renewable Diesel Segment averaged 3.0 million gallons per day in sales.
Neste reported Q1 2026 EBITDA up from reported earnings in Q1 2025. Renewable products margin increased compared to a year ago. Margin increased significantly which was attributed to stronger term sales premiums and the surge in middle distillate prices.
Montana Renewables announced increased adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes compared to Q1 2025. Turnaround and MaxSAF 150 expansion work began in early March, with normal operation resumed in early May.