SAF Industry at a Glance
December 19, 2025
The key SAF market developments in December 2025 include:
Crude oil pricing continued its downward trend since the beginning of the year due to an oversupply in the market and softening demand. Optimism on peace deals between Russia and Ukraine are driving prices lower due to the potential easing of US sanctions on Russian energy should a deal be completed, increasing the oversupply. Longer-term forecasts are increasingly pessimistic on prices, with most still expecting crude oil to average in the mid $50/barrel in 2026.
Airline passenger demand increased globally, which also contributed to an increase in average jet fuel prices for the calendar month, despite weakening average oil prices.
US SAF premiums are steady following the turmoil of US incentive structure seen for the first half of the year. These changes deal a significant blow to the prospects for the US SAF industry.
Expected SAF margins are strengthening due to decreasing feedstock prices, rising jet fuel prices, and relatively strong RINs pricing. Margins are expected to dwindle in 2026 with the removal of the SAF special rate for 45Z credits, limitations on foreign feedstocks from 45Z credit generation, and proposed limitations on RINs generation for imports (feedstocks and products).
XCF Global Inc., Southern Energy Renewables, Inc., and DevvStream Corp signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly explore the potential development of a SAF platform. The collaboration is aimed at boosting long-term SAF supply through multiple production pathways, including biomass to jet via methanol and HEFA.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has criticized European and UK SAF mandates, claiming that the cost of SAF compared to conventional fuel has escalated dramatically.
The German Government has approved a statute that implements the EU RED III directive into national law, aligning German policy with new EU standards.
Eight EU countries (Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal) announced the launch of the eSAF Early Movers Coalition as part of the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP). This coalition is open to further members and will work to share best practices and knowledge, with the main goal being the organization of double-sided auctions for eSAF – the first of which is expected in 2026.