SAF Industry at a Glance
Americas | January 2026
The key SAF market developments in January 2026 include:
Crude oil pricing has seen a slight upturn since the end of 2025 due to increased risk within the supply chain. Geopolitics and supply chain disruptions are increasing the market risk, which is leading to increased premiums.
Airline passenger demand increased globally, and passenger load factor set a record for the month of November.
Jet pricing saw a sharp decline at the end of 2025, dipping 13% versus November. This had a significant impact on estimated SAF margins which were trending upward.
US SAF premiums are steady following the turmoil of US incentive structure seen for the first half of the year. These changes deal a significant blow to the prospects for the US SAF industry.
Jet price decline caused expected SAF margins to decline with flat feedstock and incentive pricing. RINS pricing is still relatively strong, over $1.00 per RIN. Margins are expected to dwindle in 2026 with the removal of the SAF special rate for 45Z credits and limitations on foreign feedstocks from 45Z credit generation.
The EPA confirmed that they will finalize biofuel obligations by the end of Q1 2026 and it is rumored that they will pull back the proposed limitations on imported materials.
Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines have joined Par Hawaii to invest in pioneering the development of SAF using locally grown Camelina to reduce aviation carbon emissions.
Washington State leaders, along with various aviation industry partners, research institutions, Tribal Representatives, and sustainability advocates launched the Cascadia Sustainable Aviation Accelerator (CSAA)
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne made a statement in January that he expects the EU to water down its SAF mandate in a similar manner to the relaxation of its ban on new internal combustion engines that happened at the end of 2025.
The European Commission announced in January that Switzerland would be aligning with the ReFuelEU Aviation legislature, committing to 2% SAF blended into its aviation fuel pool from the 1st of January 2026.
BP and agricultural company Corteva announced a JV in January called Etlas to develop crops that would be suitable for biofuels production (including via refinery coprocessing) that do not compete with food source crops – such as cover and fallow crops.
Trafigura announced in January that it had entered into a binding 6-year offtake of SAF produced by Uruguayan producer Syzygy (a subsidiary of Syzygy Plasmonics). Syzygy converts biogas into SAF via its GHG e-ReformingTM technology, which will use renewable power (in the form of solar) to break down biogas from the dairy industry into syngas.
Thailand announced (via its Department of Energy Business) that it would be implementing a 1% SAF blending mandate from the 1st of January 2026.